2018 Brazilian Grand Prix – Preview

It was a magnificent win for Max Verstappen at the Mexican Grand Prix, another tough race for Daniel Ricciardo ending in his eighth retirement of the season, but the biggest headline was Lewis Hamilton becoming just the third man after Juan Manuel Fangio and Michael Schumacher to win five Formula One World Championships, an incredible achievement.

However, the focus now turns to the Autódromo José Carlos Pace in São Paulo, Brazil for the penultimate round, Round 20 of the 2018 FIA Formula One World Championship, and a battle not only for the Constructors’ Championship, but also for third in the Drivers’ Championship.

Hamilton (358 points) became a five-time Formula One World Champion after his fourth-place finish in Mexico, a performance in any other circumstances would have been described as a lacklustre one, finishing 78.738 seconds behind race winner Verstappen, and the last car on the lead lap. Hamilton and Mercedes will be looking for a much better performance in the final two races of the season in Brazil and Abu Dhabi, two circuits which should suit Mercedes on paper much better.

Sebastian Vettel (294 points) has secured second in the world championship after finishing second in Mexico, which wasn’t enough to keep the championship battle going in his Ferrari, but the positive sign for the Prancing Horse is that Ferrari have regained the speed that they had before the flyaway races, winning in Austin with Kimi Räikkönen, and being the second-best car in Mexico behind Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer at a track which very much suited Red Bull.

Talking about Räikkönen (236 points), he leads a three-way battle for third in the world championship with Hamilton’s teammate Valtteri Bottas (227 points), and Verstappen (216 points), while Ricciardo (146 points) will finish 2018 in sixth after retiring for the second-straight week, this time due to a hydraulics failure.

Behind the top six in the championship, there is a huge scrap for seventh with Nico Hülkenberg (69 points), Sergio Pérez (57 points), Kevin Magnussen (53 points), Fernando Alonso (50 points), Esteban Ocon (49 points), and Carlos Sainz Jr. (45 points) all within 24 points of each other with two races remaining.

Looking at the Constructors’ Championship, Mercedes (585 points) could claim their fifth-straight championship Brazil, currently leading by 55 points over Ferrari (530 points). Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer (362 points) are locked-in for third with Renault (114 points) close to locking up fourth ahead of Haas-Ferrari (84 points).

Then beyond the top five, McLaren-Renault (62 points) are hanging onto sixth ahead of Force India-Mercedes (47 points), while a great battle continues for eighth in the championship with Sauber-Ferrari (36 points) overtaking Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda (33 points), while Williams-Mercedes (seven points) will finish 10th in the Constructors’ Championship barring a minor miracle.

Looking at the championship permutations, Mercedes can claim the 2018 Constructors’ World Championship in Brazil if they are not out-scored by Ferrari by 13 points or more. If Ferrari finish first and second in São Paulo, the battle will go down to the final race in Abu Dhabi regardless of what Mercedes does. However, if one Mercedes driver finishes the Brazilian Grand Prix inside the top two, the other Mercedes driver must finish fifth or higher unless the first Mercedes driver win, with a Mercedes win being enough to clinch the Constructors’ Championship regardless of what Ferrari does.

And, we also have the battle for third in the championship on the line in Brazil, which can be decided in favour of Kimi Räikkönen:

  1. If Räikkönen wins the race, Bottas must finish 6th or lower.
  2. If Räikkönen finishes second, Bottas must finish 9th or lower, and Verstappen must finish 4th or lower.

So, who will win the 2018 Brazilian Grand Prix?

In my opinion, I think Mercedes will return back to their best form, but I still suspect Ferrari will be with them in the battle for the victory at the Autódromo José Carlos Pace. Overall, I think Sebastian Vettel will find his best form to claim his sixth race win of the season, but I think the two Mercedes will be on the podium to claim their fifth-straight Constructors’ World Championship.

Advertisements

2018 Mexican Grand Prix – Preview

Kimi Räikkönen took his 21st career race victory in Formula One, but his first since the 2013 Australian Grand Prix, when he was with the Lotus F1 Team, by taking out the 2018 United States Grand Prix, his first win in the United States, holding of Max Verstappen, who charged from 18th on the grid to claim second, and claimed the Driver of the Day award, and Lewis Hamilton, with Mercedes taking a strategic gamble by taking the pit-stop under the virtual safety car, but it backfired, but despite requiring a second pit-stop, Hamilton charged back to finish in a close third.

And with this, the 2018 FIA Formula One World Championship battle is still alive heading into the 2018 Mexican Grand Prix, Round 19 of the championship.

Hamilton (346 points) leads the world championship for Mercedes by 70 points over Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel (276 points) after another disappointing performance by the German, finishing in fourth after spinning on the opening lap when racing Daniel Ricciardo, throwing away yet another opportunity for a crucial race victory.

Behind Hamilton and Vettel in the championship, Vettel’s teammate Räikkönen (221 points) has re-taken third in the standings ahead of Hamilton’s teammate Valtteri Bottas (217 points), while Verstappen (191 points) is closing in on both of them in a close fifth for Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer, but the Dutchman’s teammate Daniel Ricciardo (146 points) is still mathematically in the hunt, but realistically knows that sixth is the best he can do this year in the world championship after suffering his seventh retirement of the season.

However, while the battle for third in the championship is starting to heat up, the battle for seventh in the standings has been blown wide open, with Nico Hülkenberg (61 points) moving up to seventh after a sixth-place finish at the Circuit of the Americas for Renault, with Sergio Pérez (57 points) slipping one place back to eighth in the world championship after finishing in the same position at the United States Grand Prix for Force India-Mercedes.

Behind Hülkenberg and Pérez, the trio of Kevin Magnussen (53 points) for Haas-Ferrari, Fernando Alonso (50 points) for McLaren-Renault, and Esteban Ocon (49 points) for Force India-Mercedes, who in the case of Alonso retired from the United States Grand Prix, and in the case of Magnussen and Ocon were disqualified after technical breaches in regards to their fuel usage, with Magnussen using beyond the maximum 105kg of fuel, and Ocon for exceeding the fuel-flow limit on the opening lap of the grand prix, while Hülkenberg’s teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. (45 points) moves into the tussle for seventh in the world championship after finishing seventh in Austin.

Looking at the Constructors’ Championship, Mercedes (563 points) have had their lead narrowed slightly to 66 points over Ferrari (497 points), while Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer (337 points) will finish third regardless of what happens in the final three races of the season, but behind them, Renault (106 points) have taken a firm grip on fourth ahead of Haas-Ferrari (84 points), while Force India-Mercedes (47 points) close in on McLaren-Renault (58 points) for sixth, a tight battle continues for eighth in the championship between Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda (32 points) and Sauber-Ferrari (28 points), while Williams-Mercedes (seven points) have had a lock on 10th in the Constructors’ Championship for quite a while.

So, with the opportunity of both the Drivers’ World Championship, and the Constructors’ World Championship to be claimed this weekend by Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes respectively, this is how they can do it.

For Hamilton to claim his fifth world championship at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City:

  1. If Vettel wins, Hamilton must finish 7th or higher.
  2. If Vettel doesn’t win, Hamilton becomes a five-time Formula One World Champion.

For Mercedes to claim their fifth-straight Constructors World Championship at the 2018 Mexican Grand Prix, Mercedes must out-score Ferrari by 20 points or more.

So, who will win in Mexico?

Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer have been targeting this race as a chance to grab a win before the 2018 season comes to an end, and judging by their form in Austin, they are a strong chance of success, and with the high altitude reducing the power-unit advantage of Mercedes and Ferrari, you could see a race victory from either Max Verstappen or Daniel Ricciardo, and if that happens, Lewis Hamilton will be a five-time world champion.

2018 United States Grand Prix – Preview

Lewis Hamilton has taken six of the last seven races, and now has the distinct opportunity to become only the third driver in history to become a five-time Formula One World Champion when Round 18 of the 2018 FIA Formula One World Championship takes place from the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas for the 2018 United States Grand Prix.

Hamilton (331 points), who has won the United States Grand Prix six times, including five times at the Circuit of the Americas, including in each of the last four years, leads the championship for Mercedes by 67 points over Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel (264 points) after claiming his fourth win in a row at Suzuka, and with the big step-up in performance Mercedes has taken, particularly during the flyaway races, it is almost a fait accompli that Hamilton will take out his fifth world championship, if not in the United States, at the following race in Mexico.

Behind the top two in the championship, the battle, in terms of the points score, has really fizzled out in the battle for third, with Hamilton’s teammate Valtteri Bottas (207 points) starting to take a firm grip on third in the world championship ahead of Vettel’s teammate Kimi Räikkönen (196 points), who will be looking to finish his time with Ferrari on a high before joining Sauber-Ferrari in 2019.

Max Verstappen (173 points) is fifth in the championship for Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer, and has a good chance of finishing third or fourth in 2018, ahead of his teammate Daniel Ricciardo (146 points), who seems destined to finish his final year with Red Bull, before linking up with Renault in 2019, in sixth position in the world championship despite three-straight points-scoring finishes.

And, behind the top six in the championship, we have five drivers separated by just four points battling to finish seventh, with Sergio Pérez (53 points), Kevin Magnussen (53 points), Nico Hülkenberg (53 points), Fernando Alonso (50 points), and Esteban Ocon (49 points) jostling between each other for the “best of the rest” title.

Looking at the Constructors’ Championship, Mercedes (538 points) have a stranglehold on the world championship, leading by 78 points over Ferrari (460 points), and could take their fifth-straight Constructors’ Championship at the next round in Mexico.

Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer (319 points) are guaranteed to finish third at worst, should they, as expected, not be able to catch Ferrari, while the battle behind only continues to heat up, with Haas-Ferrari closing in on Renault for fourth, McLaren-Renault coming under increasing pressure from Force India-Mercedes for sixth, while Sauber-Ferrari are still in touching distance of Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda for eighth, while Williams-Mercedes are destined to finish 2018 in 10th.

Looking at the championship permutations, Lewis Hamilton must finish inside the top six at the 2018 United States Grand Prix, and ahead of Sebastian Vettel if he is to become a five-time world champion this weekend. Hamilton will become a five-time world champion at the Circuit of the Americas if:

  1. If Hamilton wins, Vettel must finish in 3rd or lower.
  2. If Hamilton finishes in 2nd, Vettel must finish in 5th or lower.
  3. If Hamilton finishes in 3rd, Vettel must finish in 7th or lower.
  4. If Hamilton finishes in 4th, Vettel must finish in 8th or lower.
  5. If Hamilton finishes in 5th, Vettel must finish in 9th or lower.
  6. If Hamilton finishes in 6th,  Vettel must finish outside of the points-scoring positions (11th or lower).

So, who will win the 2018 United States Grand Prix?

Unless Ferrari magically find some mind-blowing speed, Mercedes are most certainly the team to beat, and given what we saw in Russia and Japan, it would not be surprising if Mercedes finish first and second in Austin, and if that is the case, as long as Hamilton wins the United States Grand Prix for the seventh time, and at the Circuit of the Americas for the sixth time, he will claim his fifth world championship, and join Juan Manuel Fangio in equal-second for the most Formula One World Championships.

2018 Japanese Grand Prix – Preview

After Lewis Hamilton took his eighth race victory of the season, and his fifth in six races, albeit in somewhat controversial circumstances in regards to team orders, the 2018 FIA Formula One World Championship heads straight from Sochi to Suzuka for the Japanese Grand Prix, Round 17 of the championship, a championship that is heading towards the grasp of Hamilton for the fifth time.

Hamilton (306 points) leads the world championship for Mercedes by 50 points over Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel (256 points), with Hamilton having achieved the same amount of points in 16 rounds that he did after 16 rounds in 2017, with Vettel having nine points than he did at the same point last year after finishing third in the Russian Grand Prix, and unless Vettel responds soon with some victories, his chances of winning the 2018 championship will have floated out the window, much to the disappointment of the Vettel and Ferrari supporters.

Behind the top two in the championship, Hamilton’s teammate Valtteri Bottas (189 points) has overtaken Vettel’s teammate Kimi Räikkönen (186 points) into third in the world championship after finishing second in Russia, which was after being ordered by his team to change positions with his teammate, while Räikkönen wasn’t really in contention for the win, or perhaps even the podium in finishing in a lonely fourth.

Besides Hamilton and Vettel, only Bottas and Räikkönen still remain in mathematical contention to win this year’s world championship.

Max Verstappen (158 points) is now out of mathematical contention for the championship in 2018 despite a storming drive from 19th on the grid to lead the race after Lap 19, and led the most laps in the race (24) on-route to finishing in a highly commendable fifth, just 31.016 seconds behind Hamilton, while his Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer teammate Daniel Ricciardo (134 points) finished in a low-key sixth from 18th on the grid after some early minor front wing damage affected his pace before his only pit-stop of the race.

Behind the top six in the championship, we have a strong five-way battle for seventh in the championship with Kevin Magnussen (53 points), Nico Hülkenberg (53 points), Fernando Alonso (50 points), Sergio Pérez (47 points), and Esteban Ocon (47 points) all separated by just six points.

As far as the Constructors’ Championship is concerned, Mercedes (495 points) have extended their lead over Ferrari (442 points) to 53 points, with Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer (292 points) in a strong third, and will be hoping to get another victory or two before the end of 2018.

Beyond the top three, Renault (91 points) are still in fourth, but have had their margin over Haas-Ferrari (80 points) narrowed to just 11 points, with McLaren-Renault (58 points) in a clear sixth. Behind them is a tight fight for seventh between Force India-Mercedes (35 points), Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda (30 points), and Sauber-Ferrari (27 points), with Williams-Mercedes (seven points) looking very secure in 10th and last position in the Constructors’ Championship.

So, who will win at Suzuka?

Right now, you wouldn’t bet against Lewis Hamilton from winning the Japanese Grand Prix for a fifth time, and winning at Suzuka for the fourth time, but has only taken one pole position at Suzuka, which was last year on-route to his fourth Japanese Grand Prix victory, with his only other two pole positions in Japan coming at the Fuji Speedway in his first two years in Formula One back in 2007 and 2008.

However, it is most certainly a must win race for Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari if they want to challenge Hamilton and Mercedes for the championship, but right now, it appears to be an uphill challenge for Vettel and Ferrari.

Hamilton to take the win, and a very strong stranglehold on a fifth world championship.

 

2018 Russian GP – Preview

Lewis Hamilton took a potentially-decisive stranglehold on the 2018 FIA Formula One World Championship by winning the Singapore Grand Prix for the fourth time, converting from pole position, the 200th by a English driver in Formula One, to claim his fourth win in the last five races, and put Sebastian Vettel firmly on the back foot as they head to Sochi for the Russian Grand Prix.

Hamilton (281 points) for Mercedes leads by 40 points over Ferrari’s Vettel (241 points) as the quest for five world championships swings heavily in the British driver’s favour. If Hamilton claims pole position in Russia, it would be his 80th in Formula One, and should he win on Sunday, it would be the 70th win of his career, and move him to within 21 of Michael Schumacher’s record of 91 wins, who Hamilton replaced of course after Schumacher retired from the sport for a second time at the end of 2012.

Behind the championship battle, the fight for third is intensifying with Kimi Räikkönen (174 points) and Valtteri Bottas (171 points) now being separated by just three points after finishing fifth and fourth respectively in Singapore, and are most certainly looking very much the support cast in their teammates quest to claim their fifth world championship.

Max Verstappen (148 points) has moved closer to the battle for third in the championship after finishing in third in Singapore, but his Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer teammate Daniel Ricciardo (126 points) is falling away from this battle despite ending a run of two-straight retirements with a sixth-place finish at the Singapore Grand Prix. Ricciardo is now officially out of contention for the 2018 FIA Formula One World Championship, even though it wasn’t expected that he could fight for the championship in 2018.

Behind the clear top six, there are eight drivers fighting for seventh in the world championship, as well as places inside the top 10, with those eight drivers separated by 26 points with six races left in the season.

In terms of the Constructors’ World Championship, Mercedes (452 points) extended their lead to 37 points over Ferrari (415 points) after their shock performance in Singapore, with Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer (274 points) in a clear third. Behind them, Renault (91 points) pull away again from Haas-Ferrari (76 points) in the battle for fourth, while McLaren-Renault (58 points) are in a clear, but stagnant sixth, followed by Force India-Mercedes (32 points), Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda (30 points), Sauber-Ferrari (21 points), and the hapless Williams-Mercedes (seven points), whose best chance for points in the final six races might be here in Sochi.

So, who will win the Russian Grand Prix?

Since the race came into the championship in 2014, Mercedes have won each of the four races in Sochi, with Lewis Hamilton taking the first two in 2014 and 2015, before Nico Rosberg won in 2016 to complete a run of seven-straight wins, including four at the start of 2016, and Valtteri Bottas claimed his first race victory in his Formula One career after holding off Sebastian Vettel in 2017.

Overall, I think Mercedes are going to have a tough battle with Ferrari once again, but it won’t be just Hamilton and Vettel, but both Bottas and Kimi Räikkönen will play a huge part. In my opinion, it is most certainly a must win for Vettel, but whoever finds their stride the best at the start of the weekend will most certainly be the ones to beat, and I think Hamilton might just snatch another race from underneath the noses of Ferrari, and pull the world championship further away from Vettel.

2018 Singapore GP – Preview

Once again, in a pressure-filled race at the home of Italian motorsport where the two main championship contenders needed to win in order to hold the supremacy heading into the flyaway races, it was Lewis Hamilton who handled the pressure the best, while Sebastian Vettel spun his grip of the championship, in terms of momentum, firmly out of his grasp, and now looks at Singapore as a race he must win in order to stay in contention for a fifth world championship.

Hamilton (256 points) leads the 2018 FIA Formula One World Championship for Mercedes by a healthy 30 points over Ferrari’s Vettel (226 points) after winning the Italian Grand Prix for the fifth-time, equalling Michael Schumacher’s record for most wins at the Italian Grand Prix, while Vettel managed to recover from his spin on the opening lap to finish in fourth.

Vettel has had not so much of a habit, but an ability under pressure to make some mistakes, like we saw when he was leading the German Grand Prix back in July, sliding out of the race in inclement conditions, and last year at the Singapore Grand Prix, which saw both Ferrari’s retire on the opening lap for the first time in history, and saw the front row of Vettel and Max Verstappen wiped out on the opening lap.

However, the spin which saw Vettel having to charge back through the field at Monza was not too dissimilar to the spin he had on the opening lap of the 2012 Brazilian Grand Prix when he was fighting for the world championship in the final race of the season with Fernando Alonso. Luckily for Vettel, he managed to do just enough to win what was his third world championship, finishing in seventh, but when Vettel is under pressure, he is vulnerable to a mistake, and right now, Vettel is under the most pressure heading into Singapore.

Looking behind the battle for the championship, there is a close battle for third in the championship between Kimi Räikkönen (164 points) and Valtteri Bottas (159 points) for Ferrari and Mercedes respectively after finishing second and third at Monza, with the Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer duo of Max Verstappen (130 points) and Daniel Ricciardo (118 points) starting to slip away from that battle due to mistakes and/or reliability issues, with Singapore a key race for them to keep their hopes of third in the drivers’ world championship alive.

Going back to Räikkönen, he will be moving back to Sauber in 2019, the same team which gave him his start in Formula One back in 2001, and will be replaced by Charles Leclerc, who has impressed in a number of races this year in the Sauber-Ferrari, a car which is certainly nowhere near the class of the front-runners.

Below the top six in the world championship, there is a five-way battle for seventh with Nico Hülkenberg (52 points) for Renault, Kevin Magnussen (49 points) for Haas-Ferrari, and the two Force India-Mercedes of Sergio Pérez (46 points) and Esteban Ocon (45 points) completing the top 10 in the championship, with McLaren-Renault’s Fernando Alonso (44 points) slipping out of the top 10 after consecutive retirements.

As far as the Constructors’ Championship is concerned, Mercedes (415 points) lead by 25 points over Ferrari (390 points), with Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer (248 points) in a very comfortable third. They are ahead of a tight battle for fourth between Renault (86 points) and Haas-Ferrari (76 points), with McLaren-Renault (52 points) in sixth ahead of Force India-Mercedes (32 points) in seventh, with Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda (30 points), Sauber-Ferrari (19 points), and Williams-Mercedes (seven points) completing the standings.

So, who will win the Singapore Grand Prix?

In my opinion, it is a must win race for Sebastian Vettel if he wants to stay in touch with Lewis Hamilton in the championship, and Ferrari should be stronger here than Mercedes, but the only complication here for Ferrari is that Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer should be strong here, like they were in Monaco, another street circuit with similar characteristics.

I think given recent events, and mechanical reliability, I am going to tip Max Verstappen to win his first Singapore Grand Prix, with Sebastian Vettel in a close second, Daniel Ricciardo, providing that his power-unit is reliable, and that he doesn’t have a grid penalty, in third, with Lewis Hamilton finishing in fourth.

 

2018 Italian GP – Preview

Sebastian Vettel capped off a dominant weekend for Ferrari with his third Belgian Grand Prix victory, which was the 52nd of his career, surpassing fellow four-time world champion Alain Prost into outright third for most wins in Formula One, and is just behind his current championship rival Lewis Hamilton (67 wins) and seven-time world champion Michael Schumacher (91 wins) in the record books, and now heads to Monza with all the momentum in the 2018 FIA Formula One World Championship as he continues to battle with Hamilton in the quest to join Juan Manuel Fangio with five world championships.

However, Hamilton (231 points) still leads the championship over Vettel (214 points), but the lead of the Mercedes driver has been cut to 17 points, with the Italian Grand Prix shaping up as a must win for Hamilton and Mercedes as he looks to win at Monza for the fifth time, and equal Schumacher’s record for most victories at the Italian Grand Prix. Of course last year, Hamilton surpassed his record of most pole positions in Formula One in what was one of the all-time great laps in the wet, almost 1.2 seconds quicker than Max Verstappen, who along with his teammate grid Daniel Ricciardo had grid penalties for power-unit and gearbox changes last year.

Meanwhile, Vettel will be looking to end the domination of Mercedes at arguably the most power-dominated circuit in Formula One, and take Ferrari back to the top step of the podium at Monza for the first time since Fernando Alonso won for the Prancing Horse in 2010, and take his third Italian Grand Prix in the process after winning in 2011 and 2013.

Behind the two drivers who are often regarded as the best of the current era, we have close battle between four drivers for third in the world championship between Vettel’s teammate and 2007 world champion Kimi Räikkönen (146 points), Hamilton’s teammate Valtteri Bottas (144 points), and the two Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer drivers in Verstappen (120 points), who has overtaken his teammate Ricciardo (118 points) into fifth in the championship.

However, you would expect both of the Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer drivers to struggle at the low downforce, power-dominated circuit, which doesn’t suit their rebadged power-unit.

The back end of the top 10 in the championship is completed by Renault’s Nico Hülkenberg (52 points), Haas-Ferrari’s Kevin Magnussen (49 points), McLaren-Renault’s Fernando Alonso (44 points), and Force India-Mercedes driver in Sergio Pérez (40 points).

Looking at the Constructors’ Championship, Mercedes (375 points) extended their lead to 15 points over Ferrari (360 points) despite not winning the Belgian Grand Prix, with Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer (238 points) in a comfortable third.

Behind them, Renault (82 points) lead the battle for fourth, ahead of Haas-Ferrari (76 points), with McLaren-Renault (52 points) in a lonely sixth, with Scuderia Toro Rosso-Honda (30 points) and Sauber-Ferrari (19 points) following, with Force India-Mercedes (18 points), who were stripped of their former points tally due to technically being a new entrant after their change of management, climbing up to ninth, and are ahead of Williams-Mercedes (four points), who will be hoping the Italian Grand Prix will be their chance to score some more points in what has been an annus horribilis in 2018.

So, who will win the Italian Grand Prix?

As strange as it might sound, given Mercedes dominance at Monza over the last four years, it is a circuit and a race that should actual suit Ferrari better, and that is a danger sign for Mercedes given their poor speed since 2014 (relative of course) at the Singapore Grand Prix, and while a number of circuits after the next two should suit Mercedes, you sense this is Ferrari’s chance to take a stranglehold of the world championship, and for Sebastian Vettel to move one step closer to a fifth world championship.